COVID-19 susceptibility and severity risks in a cross-sectional survey of over 500 000 US adults.

OBJECTIVES: The enormous toll of the COVID-19 pandemic has heightened the urgency of collecting and analysing population-scale datasets in real time to monitor and better understand the evolving pandemic. The objectives of this study were to examine the relationship of risk factors to COVID-19 susceptibility and severity and to develop risk models to accurately predict COVID-19 outcomes using rapidly obtained self-reported data. DESIGN: A cross-sectional study. SETTING: AncestryDNA customers in the USA who consented to research. PARTICIPANTS: The AncestryDNA COVID-19 Study collected self-reported survey data on symptoms, outcomes, risk factors and exposures for over 563 000 adult individuals in the USA in just under 4 months, including over 4700 COVID-19 cases as measured by a self-reported positive test. RESULTS: We replicated previously reported associations between several risk factors and COVID-19 susceptibility and severity outcomes, and additionally found that differences in known exposures accounted for many of the susceptibility associations. A notable exception was elevated susceptibility for men even after adjusting for known exposures and age (adjusted OR=1.36, 95% CI=1.19 to 1.55). We also demonstrated that self-reported data can be used to build accurate risk models to predict individualised COVID-19 susceptibility (area under the curve (AUC)=0.84) and severity outcomes including hospitalisation and critical illness (AUC=0.87 and 0.90, respectively). The risk models achieved robust discriminative performance across different age, sex and genetic ancestry groups within the study. CONCLUSIONS: The results highlight the value of self-reported epidemiological data to rapidly provide public health insights into the evolving COVID-19 pandemic.

Expanded COVID-19 phenotype definitions reveal distinct patterns of genetic association and protective effects.

Multiple COVID-19 genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have identified reproducible genetic associations indicating that there is a genetic component to susceptibility and severity risk. To complement these studies, we collected deep coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) phenotype data from a survey of 736,723 AncestryDNA research participants. With these data, we defined eight phenotypes related to COVID-19 outcomes: four phenotypes that align with previously studied COVID-19 definitions and four 'expanded' phenotypes that focus on susceptibility given exposure, mild clinical manifestations and an aggregate score of symptom severity. We performed a replication analysis of 12 previously reported COVID-19 genetic associations with all eight phenotypes in a trans-ancestry meta-analysis of AncestryDNA research participants. In this analysis, we show distinct patterns of association at the 12 loci with the eight outcomes that we assessed. We also performed a genome-wide discovery analysis of all eight phenotypes, which did not yield new genome-wide significant loci but did suggest that three of the four 'expanded' COVID-19 phenotypes have enhanced power to capture protective genetic associations relative to the previously studied phenotypes. Thus, we conclude that continued large-scale ascertainment of deep COVID-19 phenotype data would likely represent a boon for COVID-19 therapeutic target identification.

Novel COVID-19 phenotype definitions reveal phenotypically distinct patterns of genetic association and protective effects (preprint)

Multiple large COVID-19 genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified reproducible genetic associations indicating that some infection susceptibility and severity risk is heritable. Most of these studies ascertained COVID-19 cases in medical clinics and hospitals, which can lead to an overrepresentation of cases with severe outcomes, such as hospitalization, intensive care unit admission, or ventilation. Here, we demonstrate the utility and validity of deep phenotyping with self-reported outcomes in a population with a large proportion of mild and subclinical cases. Using these data, we defined eight different phenotypes related to COVID-19 outcomes: four that align with previously studied COVID-19 definitions and four novel definitions that focus on susceptibility given exposure, mild clinical manifestations, and an aggregate score of symptom severity. We assessed replication of 13 previously identified COVID-19 genetic associations with all eight phenotypes and found distinct patterns of association, most notably related to the chr3/SLC6A20/LZTFL1 and chr9/ABO regions. We then performed a discovery GWAS, which suggested some novel phenotypes may better capture protective associations and also identified a novel association in chr11/GALNT18 that reproduced in two fully independent populations.

COVID-19 Susceptibility and Severity Risks in a Survey of Over 500,000 People (preprint)

The growing toll of the COVID-19 pandemic has heightened the urgency of identifying individuals most at risk of infection and severe outcomes, underscoring the need to assess susceptibility and severity patterns in large datasets. The AncestryDNA COVID-19 Study collected self-reported survey data on symptoms, outcomes, risk factors, and exposures for over 563,000 adult individuals in the U.S., including over 4,700 COVID-19 cases as measured by a self-reported positive nasal swab test. We observed significant associations between several risk factors and COVID-19 susceptibility and severity outcomes. Many of the susceptibility associations were accounted for by differences in known exposures; a notable exception was elevated susceptibility odds for males after adjusting for known exposures and age. We also leveraged the dataset to build risk models to robustly predict individualized COVID-19 susceptibility (area under the curve [AUC]=0.84) and severity outcomes including hospitalization and life-threatening critical illness amongst COVID-19 cases (AUC=0.87 and 0.90, respectively). The results highlight the value of self-reported epidemiological data at scale to provide public health insights into the evolving COVID-19 pandemic.

AncestryDNA COVID-19 Host Genetic Study Identifies Three Novel Loci (preprint)

Human infection with SARS-CoV-2, the causative agent of COVID-19, leads to a remarkably diverse spectrum of outcomes, ranging from asymptomatic to fatal. Recent reports suggest that both clinical and genetic risk factors may contribute to COVID-19 susceptibility and severity. To investigate genetic risk factors, we collected over 500,000 COVID-19 survey responses between April and May 2020 with accompanying genetic data from the AncestryDNA database. We conducted sex-stratified and meta-analyzed genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for COVID-19 susceptibility (positive nasopharyngeal swab test, ncases=2,407) and severity (hospitalization, ncases=250). The severity GWAS replicated associations with severe COVID-19 near ABO and SLC6A20 (P<0.05). Furthermore, we identified three novel loci with P<5x10-8. The strongest association was near IVNS1ABP, a gene involved in influenza virus replication, and was associated only in males. The other two novel loci harbor genes with established roles in viral replication or immunity: SRRM1 and the immunoglobulin lambda locus. We thus present new evidence that host genetic variation likely contributes to COVID-19 outcomes and demonstrate the value of large-scale, self-reported data as a mechanism to rapidly address a health crisis.